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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
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As with California, sports wagering is illegal in Texas. Greg Abbott, a three-term governor, is up for re-election in November, along with Dan Patrick, his lieutenant governor. Patrick, who vehemently opposes sports betting, also serves as president of the Texas Senate in his current role. Several attempts to legalise sports wagering since the 2018 PASPA decision have been foiled under Patrick’s leadership.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is in the middle of a heated US Senate campaign against Democratic challenger James Talarico. Paxton will be succeeded as Texas AG by state Senator Mayes Middleton, a Republican from Galveston, or his Democratic opponent Nathan Johnson, a state senator from Dallas.
State Senator Bob Hall represents Senate District 2 in Texas, a district that contains parts of Dallas. Hall, 84, did not see a distinction between event contracts and sports wagers, noting that the former is just dressed up in a different manner.
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As of today, submissions for the 2026 iGB’s Most Influential Women list are open! We are once again looking for nominations that highlight all facets of the sector, and the women who are championing change and acting as leading forces within their company, or the sector more broadly.
Please provide as much detail and insight as possible on the person/s you are nominating. The more information and background we receive, the clearer the picture of their career and achievements can be.
While it’s tempting to use AI to help you write a submit, we please ask that you avoid doing so, as once again, the more personal an entry is, the better we can judge it across our key criteria.
